NPT Review Summit with arsenal targeting India?
(Prof.Madan Menon Thottasseri)
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The current month of May,2010 will be noted in the history while 189 countries’ diplomats are gathered in New York to attend the NPT Review Summit being held now between 03 May-28 May,2010 to impede the spread of nuclear weapons and to strengthen the Treaty. A discernible contrast to this harmony during the same month is that both Iran and North Korea are locking horns with UNSC, giving more relevance to nuclear weapon and non-weapon states in NPT group to campaign for Nuclear Non-Proliferation depicting prejudice to nuclear proliferation. The review summit is held once in five years to make an assessment of the ongoing advancement in the attainment of goals launched on at the 1970 Treaty. The previous summit held in 2005 was ended in a disappointment.
Whether certain happenings in the proliferation field may seem to be the ‘truth’ or may have just ‘half-truth’ but while analyzing the same, its intrinsic reasons behind the scenario can be presumed in any fashion as per convenience of political diplomacy followed by a nation. Still the allegations by U.S and allies are that Iran, the weapons state is hiding nuclear proliferation, took a U-turn to the LEU swap advised by U.S and Vienna group having the power of Security Council, even tested a weapon, now planned for fresh LEU swap with Turkey for diverting fuel and developing weapons in disguise etc. Similarly North Korea eye-washed powerful nations by silently diverting fuel, developed weapon and finally walked off unperturbedly from the Treaty! Both these nations will certainly wish to dilute or block a consensus document at the NPT Review Summit. Further Egypt, the Champion of the Non-Alignment Movement will be demanding a nuclear weapons-free zone forcing Israel to relinquish its arsenal against the wishes of U.S.
In fact we have to appreciate the initiative of Brazil to bring the unbending Iran for the LEU swap is certainly commendable. At the same time Brazil should not have ignored and closed eyes before visible facts that Iran had an eye for enrichment of uranium above 20% while negotiating together with Turkey. Now the Brazilian camp will get the feel that Iran was simply buying time and will be in no mood to compromise with U.S and West. Major Powers had followed a strategy of seeking to talk to Iran about its nuclear programme while dangling the threat of more sanctions if it does not stop enriching uranium. British Foreign Secretary David Miliband’s comment is to be remembered now ….”there was real willingness to treat Iran as a normal country if it behaves like a normal country but also recognition that if it flouts the will of the international community then the sanctions track is inevitable”.
The vote against Iran in IAEA resolution at Vienna in November,2009 referring Iran again to the Security Council reflected exasperation with Iran's retreat from an IAEA-U.S brokered draft deal to provide it with fuel for a medical nuclear reactor if it agreed to part with its enriched uranium, which could be turned into bomb material if further refined. Tehran had a false hope that it can head off any resolution for fresh sanctions due the strength of the latest mediators who seemed to be more considerate and supportive for Iranian ventures. Brazil and Turkey with their temporary status in the Security Council could not get any point to divert the attention of the five permanent members while the Council pursued and endorsed a draft resolution condemning Iran’s overtone as proclamations for active enrichment to make bombs!
The newest element of the sanctions would require countries to inspect ships or planes headed into or out of Iran if there were suspicions that banned materials were aboard. But as in the case of sanctions against North Korea, there will not be any approval to board ships by force at sea. The fresh sanctions may bar countries to invest in nuclear enrichment plants, uranium mines and other nuclear-related technology which is to prevent the rumored Iranian ventures with Venezuela and Zimbabwe, or with some companies in Europe.
It will be a disgrace to U.S and particularly President Obama, if there is an idea allegedly mooted even while the NPT Summit was under way, as reported by the press media in the last week, to strike Iran just because there are critical issues in the LEU swap with Turkey under the guidance of Brazil. Iran still may have certain undisclosed grievances for not maintaining a complete transparency. It may also have a long felt desire to simultaneously pursue enrichment in a small way taking into account the threat from Isreal. The Nobel Laureate should first do his best for the regional CBMs in the Middle East and win the world.
The main focus of the NPT Review Summit has to be to empower the IAEA to have greater access to any suspected nuclear sites. More penalties will have to be imposed to violators. States that do not have existing fuel enrichment facility may have to forget nuclear trading and vacate business, preventing threat of fuel diversion for weapon development. Above all, any nation that tests weapon will be denied of access to nuclear trade which will ensure any repetition of exemptions of rules as granted to India, This is to be viewed as an antipathy against the Indo-U.S nuclear civil agreement that had purportedly set a bad precedent.
How can NPT camp expect India with so much of threats from across the boundaries to sign Treaties while two neighbors China and Pakistan have stockpiles of nuclear weapons? There is no clandestine issue as the world know that due to geographical and political reasons, India is entwined into host of adverse situations wherein not even a peace-loving simple villager will assent for his nation to be a signatory as a ‘non nuclear weapons state’ in NPT. The powerful nations should know that as far as India is concerned a Treaty can be acceptable only when a signatory nation feels like a genuine beneficiary and served the purpose of a common interest. Unquestionably India cannot afford to deprive of its security and sign neither NPT nor CTBT!
India has no avowed desire for parity with China in respect of nuclear capabilities and will not think of counter-weighing the neighbor. No nuclear or non-nuclear nation will suspect the integrity of India as they know that India always gives a thrust for positive negotiation and disintegration of any pressure even at the verge of a war and is desirous of peace in the region. At the same time few find it hard to believe this reality while imagining that India nurses an ostensible aspiration for nuclear weapons’ Capability to show off regional superiority or just to maintain a bargaining power!
India is one of the countries opted to have the ‘No-first-use’ doctrine, pledging for not using nuclear weapons unless attacked by an enemy country by nuclear weapons. Further, though not signed NPT or CTBT, India has already declared a unilateral moratorium on testing nuclear weapons which is appreciated by a large majority of countries around the globe.
The regional security dynamics was analyzed at the ICNND (International Commission on Nuclear Non-proliferation and Disarmament) Regional Summit, New Delhi /2009 in the context of scope for CBMs (Confidence Building Measures) to triumph tensions in certain international boarders and in the absence of progress in resolving the same, the big question still remains unanswered…… how can the nuclear arsenals could be contained? It is very comprehensible that critical regional challenges are to be primarily addressed in order to create conducive state of affairs while moving forward the nuclear non-proliferation. Thus the global effort must be synchronized by addressing regional challenges!
It is to be noted that ICNND had submitted its report ahead of the NPT review summit, 2010. Gareth Evans, Co-chair in an exclusive interview to the BBC’s Hindi service had remarked that there is a stalemate as nobody will allow India, Pakistan and Israel to join (the NPT) as nuclear-weapon states and at the same time these three countries has no chance to join NPT as non-weapon states as well. Probably there will be an attempt to accommodate these three nations into the non-proliferation regime without giving recognition as ‘de jure nuclear powers’. Evans had openly commented that Indo-U.S civil nuclear mechanism became a one-sided deal that favoured India.
CTBT is adopted by General Assembly of United Nations and 150 countries have been ratified the same. The Treaty will come into force only when all 44 countries mentioned in the Annex II ratify it. Of these only 32 countries have signed and ratified, 9 countries which includes China, Egypt, Iran, Indonesia, Israel and U.S have signed but not ratified.3 countries – India, Pakistan and North Korea are still not signed it. The CTBT calls for a total ban on nuclear tests.
India had eminently rejected Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty (CTBT) with four eloquent words: "Not Now, Not Ever." Yet the Pressure will be on India and eight other countries - including Pakistan, Israel and China - that have still not ratified CTBT. The other eight are expected to fall in line once US ratifies, leaving India with perhaps little option but to sign.
President Obama celebrating as a champion of peace with the Nobel adornment may be keen that U.S ratifies CTBT, but it will be unattainable for him to muster two-thirds majority in the U.S Senate!
Now it is clear that there is no justification to expect India in signing up NPT and CTBT. Is there any prospect for revamping these blemished Treaties to the satisfaction all nations? US-EU formation should explore the prospects for a refurbished NPT and CTBT to dispel the consternation of all non-signatory nations.
Whether the demanding need of India to become a permanent member of the U.N. Security Council is being declined in anticipation of signing these Treaties?
While the NPT Summit will be over by 28th May,2010 though not in New York, the first Indo-U.S Strategic Dialogue is to be held at Washington on the next couple of days, between 1st June to 4th June,2010. May be the outcome of the NPT summit will certainly supply enough ammunition to antagonist groups. Though U.S is one among such a group forcing India to sign Treaties and gratify them, the U.S State Department Spokesman P J Crowley had remarked on the eve of the Bilateral Dialogue that India is a great and emerging global power with significant common interests in terms of environment, regional security, counterterrorism, economic issues etc.
Hands off to Unchanged American diplomacy!
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